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Cancer Trends in Younger Adults: Rising Rates, Falling Death Rates, and Open Questions
Some cancer rates are rising among younger adults while death rates may move differently. The pattern varies by cancer and does not have one proven cause.
Original commentary from the Cancer Explained editorial team.
Please note: this page is educational only — it is not medical advice, and it does not speculate about anyone’s health beyond reliable public reporting. For questions about your own health, talk with your healthcare team.
Two true statements that sound like a contradiction
Cancer is being diagnosed more often in younger adults. Fewer of them are dying of it.
NCI's figures for adolescents and young adults, ages 15 to 39, put numbers on both. New cases of any cancer rose on average 0.3 percent per year over 2013 to 2022. Death rates fell on average 0.9 percent per year over 2014 to 2023. Relative survival across all cancer types combined is 86 percent in this group.
Neither number cancels the other. Both come from the same national data system.
Not "cancer" as a whole
The phrase "cancer is rising in young people" hides the actual pattern. An NIH analysis published in May 2025 looked at 33 cancer types separately.
- Incidence of 14 types rose in at least one younger age group.
- Incidence of 19 other types fell among people under 50, including lung and prostate cancer.
- Because of that, the total rate of all cancers combined did not rise, and neither did the overall death rate.
Nine of the 14 rising types also rose in at least one older group: female breast, colorectal, kidney, testicular, uterine, pancreatic, and three lymphoma types. That matters. If a cancer is rising at every age, it is not a story about young people.
Only five types rose in a younger group and in no older group: melanoma, cervical cancer, stomach cancer, myeloma, and cancers of the bones and joints.
Where deaths did rise
Death rates did not increase in the younger age groups for most of these cancers. The researchers found two exceptions and described them as concerning: colorectal cancer and uterine cancer deaths at younger ages.
Naming the exceptions is more useful than a headline that generalizes from them.
Why the rates might be moving
The lead investigator on the NIH analysis was explicit that this study is a starting point, not an explanation. The listed possibilities are:
- Risk factors becoming more common at younger ages.
- Changes in cancer screening or detection.
- Updates to how cancers are diagnosed or coded.
The second and third are worth sitting with. If more people are tested, more cancers are found, without anything about people's health having changed. Better detection can also find slow-growing cancers that would never have caused harm. Some of a rising line can come from looking harder.
None of that means the increases are unreal. It means a rate alone cannot tell you which cause is at work.
What the data are, and are not
Incidence figures came from CDC's United States Cancer Statistics database, which covers the entire US population. Mortality came from national death certificate data. Different time windows apply to each, which is why incidence and death-rate periods do not match.
These are population counts. They describe groups over years. They do not estimate any individual's risk.
Percentages also mislead when the starting number is small. A large percentage rise in a rare cancer can still mean very few additional cases. Our page on reading cancer statistics covers that trap.
What it means for a younger adult
Screening recommendations are set by age and risk. A rising rate in a research paper does not by itself change what test you should have, or when. Guidelines are updated by expert panels that weigh benefits against harms, and those updates lag behind the trend data.
What does apply at any age is not ignoring symptoms that persist. Cancer in a 32-year-old is uncommon enough that it is easy to dismiss, by the patient and sometimes by a clinician. Our pages on early-onset cancer and cancer in your 30s and 40s cover what to raise.
Worth raising with a clinician
- Does my family history change what screening I should have?
- How long should a symptom last before it is worth a second visit?
- Which screening tests apply to me at my age?
- What are the downsides of testing outside the recommended group?
How this article was prepared
An AI-assisted editorial system helped prepare this page. No named medical reviewer has reviewed it unless one is listed.
The National Cancer Information Foundation publishes Cancer Explained. This page is for learning. It is not medical advice and does not suggest a test or treatment.
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Put the story in context
Prevention, possible warning signs, screening, and diagnosis
This story relates to Younger-adult cancer trends. The information below is general: it does not reveal anything else about a public person’s health, and not every point applies to every cancer. Personal advice depends on age, symptoms, family history, exposures, and medical history.
Prevention and risk reduction
Not every cancer can be prevented. Avoiding tobacco, protecting skin from ultraviolet radiation, limiting alcohol, staying active, and receiving recommended HPV or hepatitis B vaccination can lower the risk of certain cancers. A risk factor is not a prediction or a cause in one individual.
Symptoms and possible early signs
Possible signs vary and are often caused by conditions other than cancer. Changes worth discussing include a new lump, unexplained bleeding or weight loss, a persistent cough, lasting bowel or bladder changes, a changing skin spot, or symptoms that persist or worsen. Some early cancers cause no symptoms.
Screening and early detection
Screening looks for certain cancers before symptoms begin. Recommended tests exist only for some cancers and depend on age and risk. Screening can have benefits and harms; it is not the same as evaluating a new symptom, and there is no single routine scan or blood test that reliably screens for every cancer.
How cancer is diagnosed
Diagnosis may involve a history and exam, imaging, laboratory tests, and often a biopsy. Pathology can identify the cancer type and may test biomarkers that guide treatment. Symptoms, screening results, tumor markers, or online stories alone cannot confirm cancer.
A public story may encourage questions, but it should not be used to estimate your risk or choose testing. Contact a healthcare professional about a persistent or concerning change. Seek urgent care for severe or rapidly worsening symptoms.